TOP 100 TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS SITES
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| Twin Disc Inc. F3Q09 Earnings Call Transcript Twin Disc Inc. (TWIN)F3Q09 Earnings Call April 21, 2009; 02:00 pm ETComplete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Dry Bulk Vessel Oversupply Risks Continue Vincent Fernando submits: Transport Trackers came out with a research note in regards to the BDI's recent ascent to 4,000. Predicting the BDI is a bit of a fool's game, and they do not try to do so. Yet they still make it clear that betting on the BDI beyond 4,000 is pure speculation since dry bulk vessel oversupply risks continue. Can it break 4,000? Sure, especially given that it's an index of spot rates as we have previously explained. But Transport Trackers' ex-Citi Head of Asia Transport Charles de Trenck recommends that prudent capital refrain from further BDI upside speculation. The recent 6.9% one-day drop shows just how quickly this index can turn. Look at Supply: In 2H09 and into 2010 vessel supply, regardless of delays and cancelation discussion/debates, should bring back concerns of too many bulk ships. We are not against looking at certain longâterm contracts backed by cargo. But from this point on in current cycle, we are against blind speculation on BDI moving above the 4000 level.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
US Airways Group, Inc. Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript US Airways Group, Inc. (LCC)Q2 2009 Earnings CallJuly 23, 2009 1:00 pm ETComplete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Time to Sell Avis Avis Budget Group (CAR) is up 16.5 times since the beginning of the year, and more if your starting point is the March 9 low. Of course the stock first collapsed before partially recovering. On August 7, 2007 Goldman Sachs rated CAR a buy at $23.26 a share. Back then CAR was enjoying robust pricing and volume growth. The stock had fallen 30% from early July to early August. That fall in the stock price was due to concerns about competition and fear that CAR would have to cut prices. But the second quarter of 2007 showed the pricing concerns were unfounded and CAR’s cost control plans were impressive. That triggered Goldman’s buy rating. Unfortunately CAR’s stock price did not recover. It continued falling, finishing 2007 down 50% from Goldman’s buy point. But analysts did not give up. In early 2008 management announced a $50 million share buy back program.On March 7, 2008 Value Line wrote, “This unranked stock’s appreciation potential to 2011-2013 is well above Value Line’s median, assuming, as we do, a partial rebound in the P/E ratio by that period.” In 2007 CAR generated $16.58 a share in cash flow. That was impressive and more than needed to service CAR’s substantial debts. As we now know the economic fundamentals changed suddenly and dashed all hopes for CAR’s profits and stock price.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Shipping: Three High Risk, High Reward Options Andy Wang submits: With the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) clearing a 52 week high finally, now at 4381, the situation for beaten down shipping stocks has not looked this promising for all of 2009. My personal index of shippers is now up over 15%, and there is little sign of it stopping. Indeed, approaching the end of year, there could be additional pressure on shippers to book December early.The market was choppy Tuesday, with more shippers down than up. As usual in this case, it is logical that some of the leaders are being sold and the cash moved directly into the laggards. This either indicates maturation of the sector move, or the end of one wave of the move. During this time, if the 2nd tier survive their advance, the former leaders will take off again, if not, there will be a more general retreat across the board in shippers. If and when the next wave comes, if one over-commits to the 2nd tier, it usually is hard to take profits on the 2nd tier in time to get the money into the leaders again, so one has to think out their strategy ahead of time. In my case, I moved out of the leaders entirely, playing smaller names such as PRGN and FREE, but holding lots of cash and watching for bargains and risk-reduction in GNK, DSX, and EXM.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |