Shorting Winnebago, Realty Income: Not a Good Idea
Colin Peterson submits: I mentioned Winnebago (WGO) as a possible short. Their reports disclose a large potential liability (>$100MM) for repurchase of recreation vehicles. I asked investor relations whether that dollar amount was the total dollar amount of vehicles they could be required to repurchase, or if it was calculated as the maximum loss they could incur (repurchase price minus resale price) if forced to repurchase them? Turns out it is the former, which is not as bad. They only had $20,000 in losses from these repurchases in fiscal 2009. This is the type of trade I have to be careful about because I think that RVs are obscene, but clearly tons of people don't. I also mentioned Realty Income (O) as a possible short. This is an Ackman idea. They do seem to have a bad tenant mix - lots of freestanding buildings with mom&pop tenants. However - unusual for a REIT - they seem to have no secured debt whatsoever. No mortgage debt, no secured bonds. Presumably, they can lever up and stick it to the unsecured bondholders by mortgaging the properties, which would allow them to keep raising the dividend. Also the whole hedge fund herd is going to short it, and then be covering whenever their gold positions sell off. Blah. I like my Regency Centers (REG) pair trade better. So, while both of these could be decent shorts - I mean, I wouldn't buy them - I'm holding out for something better.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Lockheed Martin Awarded $842 Million F-16 Contract by Morocco
Zacks.com submits: Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) was awarded a contract worth $841.9 million for supplying 24 F-16 Fighting Falcon jet fighters and related equipment for the government of Morocco. This will boost the Aeronautics segment which in recent time had witnessed lower volume from the F-22 program. The F-16 Fighting Falcon jet fighter aircraft was developed by General Dynamics Corporation (GD) in 1976. However in 1993, General Dynamics sold its aircraft manufacturing business to Lockheed Martin. Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Ford Reports Best Monthly Sales Increase in Over 25 Years
The Good News Economist submits: On Thursday, the Ford Motor Co (F), said gross sales rose 43% in March. The increase -- which mirrored (yet surpassed) a similar gain in February -- had Ford registering the highest monthly sales increase since February 1984. Other auto business is also up. GM reported a 43% increase. Toyota (TM) said unit sales are up 41%. And Honda (HMC) reported a 22% increase. "We saw incentives rise and prices fall at some of our competitors," said Ken Czubay, vice president of U.S. marketing for Ford. Ford wants to limit its incentives to models that directly compete with Toyota, such as its Fusion mid-sized car, which competes with Toyota's Camry, and the Ford Focus, which is a rival to the Toyota Corolla.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
It's Official, Rail Freight Volumes Have Leveled Off
Wildebeest submits: Two weeks ago, our article on rail freight numbers was titled "Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off." The conclusion about a leveling off of freight drew some criticism from commenter's who saw things differently, but this week the Association of American Railroads [AAR] lead its weekly press release with:The Association of American Railroads today reported that rail traffic has leveled off after twelve consecutive weeks of gains.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Rail Traffic Dips: No Cause for Alarm
Todd Sullivan submits: This was expected… Watch some of the headlines this week when it comes to the rails. Just keep the following chart in mind. The circles areas represent the Labor Day time period - notice anything familiar?Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |