| UPS: Economy Still Has a Long Way to Go A bit of mixed data Thursday morning has investors scratching their heads over the next move in the equity market.The index of leading indicators was up by 1% in September, marking its 6th consecutive gain. The largest contributor to the improvement was interest rates, which remain accommodative. Jobless claims, on the other hand, continue to reflect the extreme weakness in the economy. Claims jumped to 531K – a truly staggering number for an economy that is supposedly in the middle of a recovery. Continuing claims dropped by 98K which is a clear sign that the ratio of firings to hirings is becoming more favorable.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Earnings Preview: Delta Air Lines theflyonthewall.com submits: Delta Air Lines (DAL) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Tuesday, January 26 before the market open with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am ET. GuidanceAnalysts are looking for EPS of (24c) on revenue of $6.86B. The consensus range is (31c)-(16c) for EPS, and $6.48B-$7.57B for revenue, according to First Call. Delta missed Q3 EPS estimates, the first time in three quarters, but beat on revenue. Investors will be looking for the company to beat on the bottom line this quarter. On its Q3 conference call, Delta noted that the revenue environment will be “tough” going forward, and forecast Q4 system capacity down 9%-11%. October, November, and December traffic were down 6.5%, 7.1%, and 7.5% respectively. Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Technical Strategist: Trouble Brewing Because of FedEx’s Chart Ockham Research submits: At Ockham, we prefer to analyze the markets from a fundamental perspective, but we are not so proud as to think that nothing can be gained by looking at the technical perspective from time to time. One well known technician, Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital was interviewed on CNBC on Monday, and he discussed some bearish findings from the charts of such economic bellwethers as FedEx (FDX) and BHP Billiton (BHP). In the case of FedEx, it is often regarded as a proxy for the strength of the US economy because shipping activity often mirrors general economic activity. His CNBC interview was light on details of why he sees trouble in the chart other than the fact that FedEx management has acknowledged the distinct possibility of a double-dip. He argues that they would be among the first to know about this and confirm any such evidence. While Griffiths bases this bearish outlook on Fedex because of technical factors as well as management’s own outlook and comments, we actually draw a similar conclusion but through a different process. There is no doubt that has been on one heck of a run as the US economy has rebounded, and the stock has advanced 131% over the last twelve months. The fundamentals have improved over this time, but we are not sure that the earnings growth or sales have been revived enough to warrant such a run. So, accordingly we have downgraded FedEx as of this week to Overvalued based on valuation concerns.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Tesla IPO: Updated Report, Valuation IPO Candy submits:Tesla (TSLA) is nearing the end of the marketing phase of their IPO and the current plan is to price the offering Tuesday, June 29th. (If market conditions permit.)Many recent IPO transactions that we have been following have been pricing below range (Broadsoft (BSFT), Motricity (MOTR), HigherOne (ONE), Fabrinet) so Tesla may be offered below the filing range in order to get the deal done.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |
Are Transports Pulling Out of the Station? Wall Street Strategies submits:By David SilverThe transports are among the strongest sectors today; despite the fears of a struggling economy, the weekly and monthly data from the railroad and trucking sectors just aren't showing this slowdown. The following chart outlines the monthly changes in total carloads since the beginning of 2006. Growth has slowed from the 15% rate during April and May, but is still higher year over year. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) now compares monthly and weekly data with the past two years. Levels of rail traffic are approaching the levels realized before the economy crashed back in 2008. In particular, chemical carloadings have bounced back dramatically, and are approaching the peak levels again.Complete Story » seekingalpha.com |